According to a recent study by Deutsche Bank, the upswing on the housing market is going to hold up over the course of 2019 – and will reach until after 2022. Contributing factors are the positive development of the job market, low interests, as well as the supply deficit with a strong influx at the same time.
Due to the unchanged course of these developments, this by now ten-year-cycle should continue during the current year. Thus, the analysts expect a further descending unemployment rate with rising wages. Also, the excess demand of almost one million homes should remain despite a higher new construction activity. Although the latter increases further and led to 300,000 completed units in the previous year, the need of 350,000 homes annually won’t likely be met until the year 2022.
Then, price growth should take place slower – not least because of higher interests for home loans and a weaker economy overall. However, as it appears as of now, a nationwide price decrease is not to be expected. Only for Hamburg, the authors expect a flattening price growth – according to the study, this is part of a north-south divide, at which prices grow more strongly in the south of the country than in the north.
In Germanys biggest cities like Berlin, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart however, immigration, housing shortage and the good situation on the job market – especially in the capital – will ensure further rising prices. There, the so-called “super cycle” should reach far beyond 2020 and make Berlin one of the “most expensive German and European metropolises”.
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