Increasing Sales Expectations Raise Retailer’s Risk Appetite

According to the recent “Retail Real Estate Report“ by Hahn, bulwiengesa and CBRE, German retailers expect higher sales numbers than the previous year. This noticeably affects real estate investments.

Retailers can finally expect rising returns. (Source: CC Licence, stocksnap.io)

After expected sales for stationary retailers reached 43 percent in the previous year, they now increased to 52 percent for the second half of 2018. Expected demand for space peaks as well: Especially in the sectors gastronomy (100 percent of the respondents) and hobby/leisure (80 percent), an increase is expected for the coming twelve months.

Investors react with a higher willingness for purchase: 68 percent intend to acquire commercial properties (2017: 63 percent), while the intention to keep a retail property lowered to 15 percent (previous year: 22 percent) and expected disposals raised slightly to 17 percent (previous year: 15 percent). There’s a strong increase in opportunistic investments: While these highest-risk investments were only considered by 13 percent of the respondents in the previous year, this number raised to 40 percent for 2018. Lesser strong, but still noticeable increases can be seen in the demand for objects of the commodity classes Core (73 percent; 2017: 68 percent), Core Plus (55 percent; 2017: 35 percent) and Value Add (45 percent; 2017: 38 percent).

Causing this increased willingness for (risky) investments is the growing expectancy that yields will eventually rise again after years of decline. While only five percent expected this development in 2017, now 17 percent of the respondents believe in a reversing trend: According to the report, this is one of the highest quotas since 2011. Despite slight declines, the majority of the respondents (68 percent; previous year: 73 percent) expect stable yields for the upcoming six to twelve months.

The „Retail Real Estate Report“ is an annual report about developments on the German real estate market. It is developed by the Hahn group in cooperation with the brokerage house CBRE, the EHI Retail institutes and the analysts of bulwiengesa. The focus lies on expert surveys about the expected behaviour and success of both market participants and investors in different regions of the country.

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